Baltic States and Poland Raise Security Alert Over Fears of Russian False-Flag Attack

Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland are increasing security around critical infrastructure amid concerns that Russia could stage a false-flag attack using Ukrainian-made drones, according to regional security officials.

The suspected objective of such an operation would be to create confusion within NATO and test the alliance's willingness to respond if infrastructure in a member state were attacked. Officials fear that an incident designed to appear as though it originated from Ukraine could create political divisions among NATO members and complicate decisions over how the alliance should respond.

A Baltic intelligence official said Russian military and domestic intelligence agencies could be preparing a potential attack against infrastructure in Russia, the Baltic states or Poland. The official suggested that an operation could potentially be authorised with little warning and might require approval from senior Russian leadership.

However, regional officials have stressed that the intelligence assessment remains uncertain. One official reportedly described the possible timeframe as being “between today and never,” highlighting that there is no confirmed indication that an attack is imminent.

Despite the uncertainty, countries in the region have begun strengthening security around strategically important facilities.

Lithuania Strengthens Protection of Energy Infrastructure

Lithuania has deployed military personnel alongside riot police to protect several critical facilities, including its liquefied natural gas terminal, oil terminal, power infrastructure and the Kruonis pumped-storage hydroelectric plant.

The measures are intended to reduce the risk of sabotage or other attacks against infrastructure that plays a major role in Lithuania's energy security.

Latvia Increases Security at Gas and Power Facilities

Neighbouring Latvia has also increased security around important infrastructure. Facilities receiving additional protection include the Daugava River dam and the Incukalns underground gas-storage facility.

The measures reflect wider concerns among Baltic governments that energy infrastructure could be targeted as part of efforts to create disruption or test NATO's political cohesion.

Poland Reviews Energy Security

Poland is also increasing vigilance around critical infrastructure, particularly LNG terminals, gas pipelines and electricity facilities. Authorities are reviewing alternative gas-import routes as an additional precaution.

Poland's nuclear-power developer has separately reported the discovery of forged company documents that appeared designed to confuse stakeholders. The company said it was investigating whether the incident could be linked to actors operating from east of Poland.

Concerns Over Ukrainian Drones

The latest fears are connected partly to earlier accusations from Moscow that the Baltic states could allow Ukrainian drones to launch attacks against Russia. Baltic governments have denied those allegations.

Regional officials fear that Russia could potentially exploit such claims to create a pretext for an operation that could then be attributed to Ukraine. A false-flag attack could make it difficult to establish responsibility immediately and potentially create political pressure within NATO.

Such an incident would be particularly sensitive because Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Poland are all NATO members. An attack on infrastructure could therefore raise questions about whether and how the alliance should respond, depending on the nature of the incident and evidence establishing who was responsible.

Moscow Rejects the Warnings

Russia has rejected the allegations that it is preparing covert attacks against infrastructure in the region. Moscow has described warnings about potential Russian false-flag operations as unsupported “scare stories” designed to justify increased militarisation and stronger security measures against Russia.

The competing claims have left regional governments preparing for a potential threat while acknowledging that there is no certainty an attack will occur.

For the Baltic states and Poland, the immediate focus remains on protecting energy, transportation and other critical infrastructure and ensuring that any suspicious activity can be detected quickly.

The heightened alert demonstrates how the war in Ukraine continues to generate security concerns well beyond the battlefield. Even without a confirmed attack, fears over sabotage, drone strikes and potential false-flag operations are prompting NATO's eastern members to strengthen their defences and prepare for scenarios that could test the alliance's unity.