Apple Set to Lead Global Smartphone Shipments in 2025, Surpassing Samsung

Apple is positioned to claim the top spot in global smartphone sales in 2025, according to a new analysis by a leading market research firm. With an estimated 19.4% market share, the Cupertino powerhouse is expected to overtake Samsung for the first time in fourteen years. Meanwhile, Chinese smartphone manufacturers may encounter uneven outcomes due to domestic economics strain, supply-chain disruptions, and intensifying competition.

Apple Projected to Become the Global Leader

Counterpoint Research’s Smartphone Market Outlook Tracker reveals that global smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 3.3% year-on-year (YoY) in 2025. Apple is set to lead, with projections estimating more than 243 million iPhone units shipped, allowing the brand to secure a 19.4% share of the global market.

Early sales figures show that the iPhone 17 outperformed the iPhone 16 series by 12% in the US and 18% in China during the first four weeks of launch. This upward trend suggests that Apple may finally surpass Samsung in annual global shipments—a milestone not achieved in more than a decade.

Samsung to Follow Closely Behind

Samsung is expected to secure the second position with an 18.7% market share, supported by a 5% YoY growth. The report attributes Samsung’s resilience to its supply-chain system, which has managed to absorb the majority of tariff-related impacts.

Strategic upgrades to Samsung’s Galaxy A-Series, such as enhanced specifications and aggressive pricing, are likely to strengthen the company’s foothold in key regions like India, Southeast Asia (SEA), and the Middle East and Africa (MEA). However, despite this progress, Samsung is projected to fall short of reclaiming the global No. 1 position between 2025 and 2029, largely due to escalating competition from mid-range Chinese brands.

Chinese OEMs Face a Volatile Outlook

Counterpoint’s findings reveal that Chinese smartphone makers may face a challenging period. Supply-chain issues, particularly shortages of LPDDR4 memory and soaring component prices, pose major hurdles. The top four Chinese brands, Xiaomi, Transsion Holdings, Vivo, and Oppo, are forecast to collectively grow by a modest 1.7% YoY.

To maintain momentum, these companies are expected to intensify their focus on international markets. Regions such as India, SEA, MEA, and Latin America (LATAM) offer clearer potential for sustainable expansion. The report notes that these brands are gradually shifting away from volume-centric strategies and moving toward value-driven growth models.