Israel Election 2026: How Exit Polls, Vote Counting and Coalition Talks Will Decide the Next Government

Israel's parliamentary election on October 27, 2026, could determine whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu retains power or opposition leaders succeed in forming a new government. However, the closure of polling stations will not immediately settle the contest. Exit polls, the official vote count and negotiations among political parties will all play a crucial role in determining who leads the country next.

The election is Israel's first since the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023, and the wars that followed across the region. With Netanyahu facing a challenge from centrist and right-wing opponents, the result could have significant implications for Israel's domestic politics, security policies and relations with its neighbours.

When Will Israel Election Results Be Known?

Voting is scheduled to end at 10 pm local time on October 27. Israeli television channels are expected to publish exit polls shortly after polling stations close, offering the first indication of how the major parties have performed.

Exit polls are estimates based on voters' reported choices and do not constitute official results. They can differ from the final count, particularly when the contest is close or smaller parties are near the threshold required to enter parliament.

Preliminary results are expected to emerge as votes are counted. The final tally is anticipated by October 30, while the official results are due to be published by November 4.

The allocation of seats may take additional time because Israel uses a proportional representation system. Parties must secure at least 3.25 per cent of the national vote to enter the Knesset, Israel's 120-member parliament. With several parties competing for seats, even small changes in vote shares could influence the final balance of power.

Why Winning the Most Votes May Not Be Enough

Israel does not elect its prime minister directly. Voters choose political parties, and the distribution of seats in the Knesset determines which political groups can support a government.

A party that finishes first is not automatically guaranteed the premiership. The key requirement is the ability to secure sufficient parliamentary support to form a government.

A governing coalition generally needs 61 of the Knesset's 120 seats to command a majority. Because no single party is expected to secure that number alone, the main political blocs will need to negotiate with smaller parties.

These negotiations can involve agreements over government policies, ministerial appointments, military service, religious affairs, security and the Palestinian issue. Smaller parties could therefore gain considerable influence if their seats are necessary to establish a majority.

What Happens After the Official Results?

Once the final results are published, Israeli President Isaac Herzog will consult representatives of the elected parties. He will then nominate the member of the Knesset he believes has the best chance of forming a government.

The nominee does not necessarily have to lead the party that wins the most seats. Instead, the president considers which candidate can attract enough support from other parties to establish a functioning administration.

The selected candidate initially receives 28 days to form a coalition. The president may grant an extension of up to 14 additional days, giving the nominee a maximum of 42 days for the process.

During this period, the candidate must negotiate with potential partners and agree on the composition and priorities of the proposed government. If an agreement is reached, the candidate presents the government to the Knesset for a vote of confidence.

Only after receiving the required parliamentary approval can the new government formally take office.

What If Netanyahu's Opponents Cannot Agree?

The opposition to Netanyahu includes politicians with differing ideological positions, ranging from centrist leaders to right-wing security hawks and left-wing parties. Although they share opposition to his continued leadership, they may disagree over several major policy questions.

Former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, former prime minister Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid, Avigdor Lieberman and Yair Golan represent different political traditions. Their ability to cooperate after the election could be as important as the number of seats their parties win.

If the opposition collectively secures enough seats but cannot agree on a common government, Netanyahu's Likud party could still have an opportunity to assemble a coalition with its existing allies.

The same challenge applies to Netanyahu's bloc. His reliance on far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties could complicate negotiations if potential partners disagree over military-service exemptions, religious policy or other domestic priorities.

Could Israel Hold Another Election?

If the first nominee fails to form a government, the president can give another member of the Knesset an opportunity. The second candidate generally has 28 days to complete the task, without the same extension available to the first nominee.

If that attempt also fails, a further process allows members of the Knesset to recommend another candidate. If no candidate succeeds within the prescribed period, parliament can be dissolved and another election held within 90 days.

Israel has experienced repeated electoral deadlocks in recent years. Between 2019 and 2022, the country held five elections amid difficulties in establishing or sustaining a stable governing coalition.

Until a new government is approved, the outgoing administration remains in office in a caretaker capacity. This allows government functions to continue while political parties negotiate.

Why the Election Matters Beyond Israel

The result could influence Israel's approach to the war in Gaza, security operations in the region, relations with the United States and policies towards the Palestinians. However, a change in leadership would not automatically mean a fundamental change in policy, as the major parties hold differing but sometimes overlapping positions on security and territorial issues.

For now, the immediate focus will be on exit polls, the final distribution of Knesset seats and the alliances that emerge after voting ends.

Israel's next leader will ultimately be determined not simply by who receives the most votes, but by who can secure the parliamentary backing needed to govern.