Trump Approval Falls to New Low as Democrats Gain Ground in US Midterm Polls

US President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to a new low in several recent national polls, while surveys ahead of the November midterm elections show Democrats holding an advantage in congressional voting preferences.

An analysis published by The Conversation said Nate Silver’s national polling aggregate had Trump’s net approval at minus 23 points, with 60.4% of respondents disapproving of his performance and 37.4% approving. The figure represented a further decline from earlier September.

Recent independent polling also reflects weakening approval of Trump. A Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted September 17-20 put his approval at 32%, the lowest level recorded for him in that poll series, while an Emerson College survey conducted September 21-22 found 39% approval and 58% disapproval.

Democrats Lead in Congressional Preference

Polling on the November 3 midterm elections has also shown Democrats ahead in the national congressional vote question.

An Emerson College survey found 53% of likely voters would support the Democratic candidate for Congress in their district, compared with 42% for the Republican candidate. The poll was conducted among 1,000 likely voters and has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

A separate NPR/PBS News/Marist poll conducted September 14-15 produced a similar result among registered voters. Democrats received 53% support compared with 41% for Republicans on the generic congressional ballot.

The Marist survey also found that 45% of voters viewed their congressional vote as mainly a vote against Trump, while 24% described it as mainly a vote for him. Among independent voters, 54% said their congressional vote was primarily a vote against the president.

Economy and Iran War Remain Key Issues

Economic conditions and the war with Iran are emerging as important factors in voters' assessments of the administration.

The Emerson poll found that 41% of respondents identified the economy as their most important concern. Sixty percent said Trump's economic policies were making the economy worse, compared with 28% who said they were making it better.

Trump's approval on the cost of living has also been particularly weak. The Reuters/Ipsos survey found that only 17% approved of his handling of the issue, which respondents identified as the most important factor influencing their November vote.

The Iran war has added to those economic concerns, particularly through higher fuel prices. The Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 57% of Americans opposed the war, compared with 33% who supported it.

Senate and House Races Remain Fluid

The polling picture comes as all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 Senate seats are scheduled to be contested on November 3.

National congressional polls measure overall voter preference but do not directly determine the outcome of individual races. Senate elections are conducted state by state, while House results depend on individual districts.

Recent surveys have nevertheless shown Democrats making gains in several competitive Senate contests. The Conversation analysis cited polling leads for Democratic candidates in states including Texas, Ohio, Alaska and Iowa, while noting that other races remain closely contested.

A Marquette Law School poll conducted September 2-9 also recorded declining approval for both major parties in Congress. Thirty-six percent approved of the way Republicans in Congress were handling their jobs, while the same percentage approved of Democrats.

With voting still weeks away, the polling numbers remain subject to change. Economic conditions, fuel prices, the Iran conflict and developments in individual congressional races could all affect voter preferences before the November election.