US Officials See China-Taiwan Invasion Unlikely Before 2028: Report

US officials increasingly believe that China is unlikely to launch an invasion of Taiwan before 2028, despite longstanding concerns that Chinese President Xi Jinping wants the People's Liberation Army to be prepared for a possible military operation by 2027, according to a Reuters report.

The assessment is based on information from two current US officials, a former US official and another person familiar with US thinking. The officials said delays in China's military readiness and Beijing's interest in Taiwan's 2028 presidential election are among the factors influencing the assessment.

2027 Readiness Target Does Not Mean Invasion

The year 2027 has frequently been cited as an important benchmark for China's military capabilities. US officials and analysts have stressed that the target refers to the People's Liberation Army being prepared to potentially conduct an operation, rather than a confirmed deadline for an invasion.

A US intelligence assessment released in March also said Chinese leaders did not then have a plan to invade Taiwan in 2027 and that Beijing continued to prefer achieving unification without military force if possible.

Taiwan's 2028 Election Could Matter

US officials cited in the latest report said Beijing may wait to see the outcome of Taiwan's 2028 presidential election before making decisions about the use of force.

According to the officials, the possibility of military action could become more significant if Taiwan's Democratic Progressive Party secures a fourth consecutive term, particularly if President Lai Ching-te wins another term. Lai and the DPP support Taiwan's separate political identity, a position opposed by Beijing.

China claims Taiwan as part of its territory and has not ruled out using force to bring the island under its control. Taiwan rejects Beijing's sovereignty claims and maintains that its future should be determined by its people.

Military Readiness Faces Delays

The US assessment also points to China's ongoing anti-corruption campaign as one factor affecting military preparations. Investigations and removals of senior military officials have disrupted parts of the People's Liberation Army's leadership structure, according to the officials cited by Reuters.

Chinese military exercises around Taiwan have continued, although one US official said last year's activities were less threatening than those seen in previous years. Exercises increased again this year, but questions remain over the PLA's readiness for a large-scale operation.

US and China Continue to Watch Taiwan

The United States remains Taiwan's principal international arms supplier despite having no formal diplomatic relations with Taipei. Washington has maintained a policy of supporting Taiwan's ability to defend itself while leaving unclear whether US forces would directly intervene in the event of a Chinese attack.

China has repeatedly called for an end to US arms sales to Taiwan. The Trump administration has also been weighing the timing of a major new arms package for Taiwan, with the president describing the proposed package as part of broader negotiations with Beijing.

For now, the latest US assessment suggests that the 2027 military-readiness benchmark should not be treated as a fixed invasion date. Officials continue to monitor China's military preparations, Taiwan's political developments and the broader US-China relationship as factors that could shape Beijing's future decisions.