Netanyahu Faces Tough Election Challenge as Rivals Compete to Lead Israel

Israel is preparing for a closely watched parliamentary election on October 27, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu facing a challenge from a group of opposition leaders seeking to end his long dominance of the country's politics. Although opinion polls have indicated declining support for Netanyahu's Likud party, the race has tightened, and neither political camp has established a clear path to forming the next government.

The election is Israel's first parliamentary vote since the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023, triggered a prolonged regional conflict involving Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. The outcome could shape the country's security policies, relations with its allies and approach to the Palestinian question in the years ahead.

Unlike presidential elections, Israel's voters elect political parties to the 120-member Knesset, or parliament. Parties must then negotiate alliances to secure the support needed to form a governing coalition. As a result, even a party that finishes first may struggle to produce a stable government without support from smaller political groups.

Benjamin Netanyahu Seeks to Retain Power

Netanyahu, 77, has been one of the most influential figures in Israeli politics for decades. After first serving as prime minister in the 1990s, he returned to office in 2009 and has led the country for much of the period since then.

His supporters view him as an experienced leader capable of managing Israel's security challenges and maintaining important international relationships. However, critics have questioned his government's handling of the security failures surrounding the October 7, 2023, attack and its subsequent conduct of the wars in Gaza and Lebanon.

Netanyahu is also facing domestic legal challenges, including a corruption trial, in which he denies wrongdoing. The International Criminal Court has issued an arrest warrant over alleged war crimes in Gaza, allegations he rejects.

His Likud party has faced pressure in opinion polls since the 2023 attack, while disputes over religious policy and exemptions from compulsory military service have further divided Israeli society. Nevertheless, Netanyahu remains a formidable political figure and has said he wants to establish a broad national government if he secures sufficient support.

Gadi Eisenkot Emerges as a Leading Challenger

Former Israel Defence Forces chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, 66, is among Netanyahu's principal challengers. He leads the centrist Yashar party and has presented himself as an alternative to the political establishment, drawing on his military background and experience in national security.

Eisenkot's profile has also been shaped by personal loss. His son was killed while fighting in Gaza, adding to the sacrifices his family has made during the conflict. He has criticised Netanyahu's handling of the war and questioned whether the government has pursued a sufficiently clear strategy.

Although Eisenkot is associated with the political centre, his approach to security remains hawkish. His campaign seeks to combine military credibility with a change in political leadership and a different approach to governing.

Recent polling has placed Eisenkot among the strongest contenders, although the narrowing race means that his position does not guarantee that he will become prime minister. Even if his party performs well, he would still need to secure support from other parties to form a coalition.

Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid Join Forces

Former prime minister Naftali Bennett, 54, is another prominent contender. A former commando and technology entrepreneur, Bennett previously served as an aide to Netanyahu before becoming one of his political rivals.

Bennett has joined forces with former prime minister Yair Lapid in a joint political alliance called Together. The partnership brings together politicians with different ideological backgrounds, united by their opposition to Netanyahu's continued leadership.

The two previously played a central role in removing Netanyahu from office in 2021, when an alliance of parties across the political spectrum formed a coalition government. That administration lasted until 2022, after which Netanyahu returned to power.

Bennett's political positions remain firmly on the right, particularly regarding Palestinian statehood and settlement construction in the occupied West Bank. Lapid, by contrast, represents a more centrist political tradition. Their cooperation reflects the opposition's effort to assemble a parliamentary majority despite differences over domestic and foreign policy.

Avigdor Lieberman and Yair Golan Offer Other Alternatives

Former defence minister Avigdor Lieberman, 68, is another influential Netanyahu critic. Once an ally of the prime minister, Lieberman left Netanyahu's government in 2018, accusing him of being too lenient towards Palestinian militants in Gaza.

Lieberman leads Yisrael Beiteinu, or Israel Our Home, which draws substantial support from Israel's Russian-speaking immigrant community. His security positions are generally hawkish, but his opposition to Netanyahu has made him a potential partner in efforts to establish an alternative government.

Former general Yair Golan, 64, leads the Democrats, a party formed from elements of Israel's Labour and Meretz political traditions. Golan has been associated with the political left and has attracted attention for his role in rescuing people during the October 7 attacks.

His party represents a different ideological alternative to Netanyahu's right-wing government, although its ability to influence the next administration will depend on its electoral performance and the wider coalition negotiations.

Far-Right Ministers Could Shape Netanyahu's Future

Netanyahu's political survival has depended in part on support from far-right parties, including those led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir.

Both ministers have drawn international criticism for their positions on Palestinians. Smotrich has supported expanding Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank and opposed the establishment of a Palestinian state. Ben-Gvir has advocated tougher measures against Palestinian prisoners and supported policies including capital punishment for convicted Palestinian militants.

Their parties could again play an important role if Netanyahu's Likud emerges as the largest party but falls short of a parliamentary majority. However, their influence could also complicate efforts to broaden the government's appeal or negotiate with parties outside the right-wing bloc.

Netanyahu has also relied on the ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties Shas and United Torah Judaism. Their demands for exemptions from military service have become a major source of domestic disagreement, particularly as Israel continues to deal with the consequences of prolonged conflict.

Arab Parties and Smaller Groups May Hold the Balance

The election may ultimately be decided not only by the main contenders but also by smaller parties whose seats could determine which side is able to form a government.

Arab minority parties, including Raam and the Joint List, represent parts of Israel's Arab population, which accounts for roughly one-fifth of the country's citizens. Their participation in coalition negotiations could become significant if neither of the main political blocs secures enough support independently.

Other smaller parties, including newer right-wing and centre-right groups, could also influence the final outcome. Their electoral performance and willingness to cooperate with rival camps may determine whether Netanyahu remains in office or his opponents can agree on a replacement.

Israel's proportional representation system makes coalition-building central to the process. Winning the largest share of votes does not automatically guarantee the premiership, and negotiations can become complicated when parties disagree over security, religion, military service and relations with the Palestinians.

With voting scheduled for October 27, Netanyahu faces a serious challenge from a diverse group of rivals. However, the narrowing race and uncertainty over coalition arrangements mean that the identity of Israel's next leader will depend not just on the election results but also on which parties can assemble a workable parliamentary majority.